FMLN ahead in presidential election campaign

In January, El Salvador holds elections for its legislative assembly, local municipalities and the Central American Parliament, followed by presidential elections on March 15. Can the FMLN, the leftist party of former rebels, win power for the first time since the bloody 12-year civil war ended with peace accords in 1992?

Camilo Melara Vides reports on what the opinion polls say

The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) is comfortably ahead in the latest opinion polls for the presidential vote, published by the Universidad Tecnológica. FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes, a bespectacled former TV journalist, was 15 percentage points ahead on 45.6 percent, compared with pro-U.S. Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) rival and ex-police chief Rodrigo Ávila on 30.9 percent. Compared with previous elections in 2004, 1999 and 1994, it is the first time the FMLN have enjoyed such a high level of support in the polls at this stage in the campaign.

The FMLN have managed to sustain a well-supported grassroots campaign despite the bias towards ARENA in much of the country’s media. An FMLN victory is now a real possibility:
• 10 polls since August have placed Funes ahead of Ávila for the presidential elections
• 7 polls since January have placed the FMLN ahead of ARENA for the legislative assembly elections
• 4 polls out of 7 have placed the FMLN ahead of ARENA for the municipal elections
• In the latest Universidad Tecnológica poll, the majority of respondents thought election scare tactics linking the FMLN with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Colombia’s FARC rebels would not affect the party’s share of the vote.

However, in El Salvador’s capital city, ARENA is beginning to take the advantage. The latest poll shows ARENA’s mayoral candidate Norman Quijano ahead of the FMLN’s Violeta Menjivar by 2 percent, a dramatic shift from a June survey that put Menjivar 11 percent ahead of Quijano. A win for ARENA in San Salvador in January could affect the presidential election.

Opinion poll results                                                                                          

In an October poll by the Centre for Investigation of Salvadoran Public Opinion (CIOPS - Centro de Investigación de la Ópinion Publica Salvadoreña):
- 64.8 percent said FMLN’s Mauricio Funes has the ability to be the country’s president, whereas 51.7 percent said ARENA’s Rodrigo Ávila does not. 40.3 percent said Ávila represented “more of the same” with just 18.4 percent saying he would bring change.
- 36.5 percent said the state of the economy would be the biggest factor influencing their vote, followed by the ability of the candidate (23.8 percent), the candidates’ plan for government (18 percent) and the electoral campaign (4.5 percent).
http://lapalabra.utec.edu.sv/

Who are the presidential candidates?                                                             

The two main contenders are Mauricio Funes of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and Rodrigo Ávila of the governing National Republican Alliance (ARENA).
Funes is a well-respected journalist, who presented a popular news programme called Entravista al Dia (Interview of the Day) until 2005. He was well known for his hard-hitting interview style and his independent and critical voice in a media system dominated by right-wing corporate media.
Ávila is a former head of the National Civilian Police (PNC) and owner of the country's largest private security firm. The PNC has frequently been accused of human rights violations and corruption.